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Weekly Crypto Market Report – 13th Nov’22

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market has moved to the extreme fear zone from fear zone. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has changed from “40” to “24”. 

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In laymen terms, it indicates if people have sold at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week has fallen sharply from 0.99 to 0.93. The metric is currently moving in the range as was seen in June. Generally, we see that the metric value of 1 acts as resistance during bear market. For strong confirmation of trend reversal the metric  should stay and oscillate above 1. 

 Will The Market Fall More?

Whenever a coin is moved on-chain, unspent output or a UTXO is created which holds the volume of BTC. From the time UTXOs are created up until the time they are spent , UTXOs accumulate lifespan known as age. Spent Output Age Bands helps in analysing  the lifespan accumulated by each of the spent outputs on any particular day.

From the graph, we see that more than 3,500 UTXOs with the lifespan of more than 10 years were spent on-chain. Since 2020 ,we have not seen more than 2,400 UTXOs with age more than 10 years  being spent on-chain on any particular day. Thus, it is important to monitor the prices as this might lead to further volatility in prices. 

Exchange reserve is one of the important metrics to determine the potential number of coins with a high probability of getting spent in the market. 

Exchange reserve increases: Liquid supply increases, selling pressure increases 

Exchange reserve decreases: Illiquid supply increases, selling pressure decreases

In the last one week, exchange reserve has dropped by 13%. This might be due to investors transferring their coins from exchange (FTX) to wallets.  

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is calculated  as the sum value of the number of days between created and spent multiplied by the UTxO amount.

When the metric value increases this indicates that long-term coins are moving in great amounts which might lead to huge volatility in prices or signal trend reveral. On the contrary, when the metric value decreases this indicates long-term holders are moving their coins in less amount. 

The metric has increased by 10M in the last one week which indicates that the amount of coin age that is being spent in the system is significant and further increase in the metric might lead to more price volatility.

Puell Multiple captures the aggregate profitability of Bitcoin mining industry. It is calculated by dividing miner’s current income (USD) to the annual average income. 

• Puell Multiple > 4: Profitability is high which increases miner’s incentive to sell

• Puell Multiple < 0.5: High income stress which can lead to capitulation 

Currently, the metric stands at a value of 0.54. The important metric to observe in the present scenario is hash rate. If hash rate increases operational cost of miners also increases. Since, miners are already at high income stress , increase in operational cost will lead to sell off by miners and further drop in price.

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 4% in the last week. The weekly trend for Dow Jones broke out of the megaphone down pattern. The next resistance is expected at 34,300 and next support is expected at 28,700 levels.

Gold

Gold Futures also jumped up by 5% during the past week. The weekly trend for Gold is made a breakout from the descending channel pattern. The next resistance is expected at $1,820

Bitcoin

Bitcoin made a massive downward slide during the past week due to the ongoing FTX fiasco. The daily trend for BTC is broke below the triangle pattern. The next support for Bitcoin is expected at $14,700

ETHEREUM

Ethereum remained fairly neutral against Bitcoin, in the week gone by. The hourly trend for ETH-BTC has broken out of the triangle pattern. The next resistance is expected at 0.085 and next support is expected at 0.065.

 

Highlights of the week:

Crypto investment firm Digital Currency Group is giving an equity infusion of $140 million to Genesis Global Trading. This additional capital will bolster the position of Genesis Global trading as a global leader in crypto capital markets.

 

 

 

 

Giottus, an Indian cryptocurrency exchange among the top 10 in the country, announced it will provide customers with proof of reserves, which will boost their confidence of the customers.

 

 

 

 

Wealth funds are investing in crypto, and a large number of funds already reside in Dubai. Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), a dedicated regulator for the industry, has assured local companies that a framework will come by the end of this year.

 

 

Our Pick of the week:

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Weekly Crypto Market Report – 06th Nov’22

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market is in the fear zone. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has changed from “34” to “40”. 

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In laymen terms, it indicates if people have sold at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 0.99 which means the coins on average are being sold near their purchase price. Generally, we see that the metric value of 1 acts as resistance during bear market. For strong confirmation of trend reversal the metric  should stay and oscillate above 1. 

 Is This The Beginning of Bull Market?

The number of active addresses is directly proportional to the number of active users. It is important to note that the number of active addresses doesn’t give the exact number of active users as a user might have more than one address. 

During a bull market, the number of active addresses increases tremendously and a sharp fall is experienced as prices begin to fall showing weaker hands leaving the market. Historically, we have seen the metric startes oscillating within a range after the fall in the bear market and increases sharply as the market prepares to move out of the bear phase. The number of active addresses is still moving within a range (sideways movement) and doesn’t show the growth as seen during the start of the bull market. Thus, the metric doesn’t confirm start of the bull market.

Realized price is defined as the average cost of acquisition based on every coin moved on-chain. In all the previous bear markets we see that the price trades below the realized price which indicates on average the coins held during this period have higher cost of acquisition than the current market price.   Realized prices acts as psychological supports areas during bear market.

After staying for more than 30 days below the realized price , 21,107 USD , the price has just moved above it. For bull market confirmation, the market price should be above realized price. 

MVRV ratio is equal to the market capital divided by realized capital of Bitcoin. Realized capital unlike market capital does not use the current market price, but rather uses the prices of each Bitcoin when they last moved. 

So, for example if the price of most of the Bitcoin when they last moved was $10,000 and the current price is $60,000. Then the MVRV ratio would stand at 6. This means that the market is extremely heated and profit booking is likely. On the other hand, if the of most of the Bitcoin when they last moved was near the market price, then the CMP can be considered as the bottom.

Currently, the metric stands at 1 which means that market is neither in profit nor at loss. For confirmation of trend reversal the metric should oscillate above 1.

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped marginally (1.4%) in the last week. The weekly trend for Dow Jones continues to traverse within a megaphone down pattern, bouncing-off the top trendline. The next resistance is expected at 34,300 and next support is expected at 28,700 levels.

Gold

Gold Futures gained nearly 2% in the last week. The weekly trend for Gold is traversing within a descending channel pattern. The next support is expected at $1,620

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remained fairly neutral during the past week. The weekly trend for BTC is moving within an ascending channel pattern, nearing the bottom trendline. The next resistance is expected at $25.1K and key support is expected at $17.6K 

ETHEREUM

Ethereum dropped nearly 3% against Bitcoin, in the week gone by. The daily trend for ETH-BTC is forming a cup and handle pattern. The next resistance is expected at 0.085 and next support is expected at 0.065.

Highlights of the week

Singapore’s central bank has approved an in-principle license for a local unit of Hong Kong virtual asset manager Hashkey Group. The license will allow the company to conduct fund management services in Singapore.

 

 

 

 

 

India’s crypto industry has formed a new advocacy body almost four months after the previous one was disbanded under cloudy circumstances. The body will be called Bharat Web3 Association (BWA) and will work with the Indian government for making India a global leader in the web 3.0 industry.

 

 

In a poll, nearly 40% of voters under the age of 45 reported being more interested in crypto in the current economic climate. Over half of voters surveyed who did not own crypto were waiting until the economy improves before investing.

 

 

 

 

Our Pick of the Week

 

Coti (COTI)

We expect a gain of 10% from the Buy Price of 0.1103 USDT and outperform BTC in the coming week.

 

Get deeper insights into the crypto market’s weekly trends discussed on our Spotify podcast.

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BD

Weekly Crypto Market Report – 30th Oct ’22

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market has changed from extreme fear to fear. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has changed significantly and currently stands at  “34”. 

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In laymen terms, it indicates if people have sold at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 0.99 which means the coins on average are being sold near their purchase price. Generally, we see that the metric value of 1 acts as resistance during bear market. For strong confirmation of trend reversal the metric  should stay and oscillate above 1. 

 Are We Out Of The Bear Market?

The number of active addresses is directly proportional to the number of active users. It is important to note that the number of active addresses doesn’t give the exact number of active users as a user might have more than one address. 

During a bull market, the number of active addresses increases tremendously and a sharp fall is experienced as prices begin to fall showing weaker hands leaving the market. Historically, we have seen the metric startes oscillating within a range after the fall in the bear market and increases sharply as the market prepares to move out of the bear phase. Even though, we have seen more than 5% increase in the price of Bitcoin but the number of active addresses is still moving within a range (sideways movement) and doesn’t show the growth as seen during the start of the bull market.

Realized price is defined as the average cost of acquisition based on every coin moved on-chain. In all the previous bear markets we see that the price trades below the realized price which indicates on average the coins held during this period have higher cost of acquisition than the current market price.   Realized prices acts as psychological supports areas during bear market.

Currently, the realized price , 21,105 USD , is below the current price and the level $21,105 is acting as psychological resistance area.  

MVRV ratio is equal to the market capital divided by realized capital of Bitcoin. Realized capital unlike market capital does not use the current market price, but rather uses the prices of each Bitcoin when they last moved. 

So, for example if the price of most of the Bitcoin when they last moved was $10,000 and the current price is $60,000. Then the MVRV ratio would stand at 6. This means that the market is extremely heated and profit booking is likely. On the other hand, if the of most of the Bitcoin when they last moved was near the market price, then the CMP can be considered as the bottom.

Currently, the metric stands at 0.97 which means that market is holding 3% loss. This means the market is still undervalued and we might see trend reversal when the metric starts oscillating above 1.

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average gained by nearly 6% in the previous week. The weekly trend for Dow Jones has formed a megaphone down pattern. The next resistance is expected at 34,300 and next support is expected at 28,700 levels.

Gold

Gold Futures remained fairly neutral in the last week. The weekly trend for Gold is traversing within a descending channel pattern. The next support is expected at $1,620

Bitcoin

Bitcoin closed 5.4% higher during the past week. The weekly trend for BTC is traversing within a rectangle pattern. The next resistance is expected at $25.1K and key support is expected at $17.6K 

ETHEREUM

Ethereum grew by over 10% against Bitcoin, in the week gone by. The weekly trend for ETH-BTC is moving within an ascending triangle pattern, on a 5-year consolidation. The next resistance is expected at 0.085 and next support is expected at 0.065.

Highlights of the week

Japanese crypto exchange Coincheck is planning to complete its listing on Nasdaq via a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Thunder Bridge Capital Partners IV on July 2, 2023 and was valued at $1.25 billion in March’22.

 

 

 

 

Blockchain Node Engine will be a fully managed node-hosting service that can minimize the need for node operations.

 

 

The 2022 FIFA World Cup is less than a month away. In the past seven days, fan tokens of the Peruvian national football team (FPFT), Spain’s national team (SNFT) and Brazil’s national team (BFT) have rallied 29%, 17% and 12%, respectively.

 

 

 

Our Pick of the Week

Chainlink (LINK)

We expect a gain of 10% from the Buy Price of 7.74 USDT and outperform BTC in the coming week.

 

 

 

Get deeper insights into the crypto market’s weekly trends discussed on our Spotify podcast.

Start your Crypto Investments with XMINT Bots today

BD

Weekly Crypto Market Report – 23rd Oct’22

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market is in the extreme fear zone. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has not changed significantly and currently stands at “23”. 

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In laymen terms, it indicates if people have sold at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 0.98 which means the coins on average are being sold at loss. Generally, we see that the metric value of 1 acts as resistance during bear market. For strong confirmation of trend reversal the metric  should stay and oscillate above 1. 

 Is Market Gearing Up For Another Capitulation?

Spent Output Age Bands USD metric aggregates the coins spent on-chain into different categories depending on their age in USD value. The metric is generally used to analyze the behaviour of Long-Term and Short Term Holders.

After 3 months of minimal activity, we see the spending of investors who have held their coins for at least  6 months has started increasing. Further continued spike in the metric might lead to capitulation. 

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is calculated  as the sum value of the number of days between created and spent multiplied by the UTxO amount.

When the metric value increases this indicates that long-term coins are moving in great amounts which might lead to huge volatility in prices or signal trend reveral. On the contrary, when the metric value decreases this indicates long-term holders are moving their coins in less amount.

Currently, the metric is at three month high which indicates that the amount of coin age that is being spent in the system has started increasing and thus, increasing the probability of another capitulation.

Puell Multiple captures the aggregate profitability of Bitcoin mining industry. It is calculated by dividing miner’s current income (USD) to the annual average income. 

• Puell Multiple > 4: Profitability is high which increases miner’s incentive to sell

• Puell Multiple < 0.5: High income stress which can lead to capitulation 

Currently, the metric stands at a value of 0.53. The important metric to observe in the present scenario is hash rate. If hash rate increases operational cost of miners also increases. Since, miners are already at high income stress , increase in operational cost will lead to sell off by miners and further drop in price.

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average gained by a good 5% in the previous week. The daily trend for Dow Jones has formed a megaphone down pattern. The next resistance is expected at 33,800 and next support is expected at 30,000 levels.

Gold

Gold Futures remained fairly neutral in the last week. The daily trend for Gold has formed a descending triangle pattern. The next support is expected at $1,620

Bitcoin

Bitcoin gained marginally during the previous week, closing 1.6% higher. The 2-hourly trend for BTC is on traversing within an ascending channel pattern. The next resistance is expected at $32.3K and key support is expected at $17.9K 

ETHEREUM

Ethereum gained almost 3% against Bitcoin, in the week gone by. The weekly trend for ETH-BTC is moving within an ascending triangle pattern, on the verge of a breakout. The next resistance is expected at 0.088 and next support is expected at 0.066.

Highlights of the week:

The social network’s users have opened over 2.5 million crypto wallets on the platform since Reddit released its NFT marketplace in July while biggest NFT marketplace, OpenSea has only 2.3 million active wallets.

 

 

 

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had informed earlier that there’s a need to collaborate with other countries to create a framework or SOP so that globally, countries can have a technology-driven regulatory framework.

 

 

 

Ripple is testing a way for developers to deploy smart contracts made for the larger and more popular Ethereum on its XRP Ledger (XRPL) blockchain with little effort.

 

 

 

Our Pick of the Week:

Chiliz (CHZ)

We expect a gain of 10% from the Buy Price of 0.1818 USDT and outperform BTC in the coming week.

 

Get deeper insights into the crypto market’s weekly trends discussed on our Spotify podcast.

Start your Crypto Investments with XMINT Bots today

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WEEKLY CRYPTO MARKET REPORT – 16th October’22

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market is in the extreme fear zone. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has not changed and stands at “24”. 

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In laymen terms, it indicates if people have sold at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 0.98 which means the coins on average are being sold at loss. Generally, we see that the metric value of 1 acts as resistance during bear market. For strong confirmation of trend reversal the metric  should stay and oscillate above 1. 

 Has Bitcoin Reached Its Bottom?

Realized price is defined as the average cost of acquisition based on every coin moved on-chain. In all the previous bear markets we see that the price trades below the realized price which indicates on average the coins held during this period have higher cost of acquisition than the current market price.   Realized prices acts as psychological supports areas during bear market.

Currently, the realized price is 21,145 USD and is down by more than 8% since it crossed below the current price in mid June 2022 which indicates coins being exchanged at these levels. Though we have seen the metric rising above the market price for a small period in August, the realized price has spent almost 3 months below the market price.  

MVRV ratio is equal to the market capital divided by realized capital of Bitcoin. Realized capital unlike market capital does not use the current market price, but rather uses the prices of each Bitcoin when they last moved. 

So, for example if the price of most of the Bitcoin when they last moved was $10,000 and the current price is $60,000. Then the MVRV ratio would stand at 6. This means that the market is extremely heated and profit booking is likely. On the other hand, if the of most of the Bitcoin when they last moved was near the market price, then the CMP can be considered as the bottom.

Currently, the metric stands at 0.90 which means that market is holding 10% loss. In the current bear cycle, we have seen that the metric made a low of 0.83 in June and since then have been very volatile. We might see trend reversal when the metric starts oscillating above 1.

During 2020 bear market we see drastic recovery in supply in profit with a small upward movement in price. This indicates coins were being accumulated during this period and thus, decrease in cost basis or accumulation cost of all these coins.

In the current market cycle, we see 51.4% of the total supply had been in loss and the metric is showing sideways movement. This is the region of accumulation of coins where investors who have higher cost basis sell their coins leading to the decrease in realised price of overall market leading to the fall in the metric with a small increase in price. 

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average gained by 1% in the previous week. The weekly trend for Dow Jones has been traversing within a descending channel pattern and as expected, bounced off from the lower trendline. We could expect the momentum to continue in the coming days.

Gold

Gold Futures dropped by 3.5% in the last week. The daily trend for Gold has formed a descending triangle pattern. The next support is expected at $1,620

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remained fairly neutral during the previous week, closing 1% lower. The weekly trend for BTC is on a double bottom formation path. The next resistance is expected at $32.3K and key support is expected at $17.9K 

ETHEREUM

Ethereum also remained fairly flat against Bitcoin, in the week gone by. The monthly trend for ETH-BTC is moving within an ascending triangle pattern, on the verge of a breakout. The next resistance is expected at 0.088 and next support is expected at 0.066.

Highlights of the week

Ether was burned verifying transactions than was created in the same period, which led to a reduction of 0.13% in supply over the last week. The rate of new ether creation has fallen by nearly 90% since the Merge.

 

 

 

Google’s Cloud Next has announced that it will receive crypto payment via an integration with crypto exchange Coinbase and initially it will rollout for few users.

 

 

 

Singapore’s central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), has granted Coinbase in-principal approval for a DPT license to operate in Singapore.

 

 

Our Pick of the Week

Travala (AVA) 

We expect a gain of 10% from the Buy Price of 0.735 USDT and outperform BTC in the coming week.

 

 

Get deeper insights into the crypto market’s weekly trends discussed on our Spotify podcast.

Start your Crypto Investments with XMINT Bots today