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Weekly Crypto Market Report – 19th Dec’22

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market is in the fear zone. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has changed from “27” to “29”. 

SOPR

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In layman terms, it indicates if people have sold their BTC at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 0.98 which means the coins on average are being sold near their purchase price 

Is This The End of the Bear Market?

BITCOIN RAINBOW CHART INDICATOR

The Rainbow Chart is a long-term valuation tool for Bitcoin. It uses a logarithmic growth curve to forecast the potential future price direction of Bitcoin.

It overlays rainbow color bands on top of the logarithmic growth curve channel in an attempt to highlight market sentiment at each rainbow color stage as price moves through it. Therefore highlighting potential opportunities to buy or sell.

Historically the blue band indicated the bottom of the cycle, blue band which is also called as the fire sale period offers extraordinary rewards to the risk

REALIZED PRICE

Realized price is defined as the average cost of acquisition based on every coin moved on-chain. In all the previous bear markets we see that the price trades below the realized price which indicates on average the coins held during this period have higher cost of acquisition than the current market price. Realized prices act as psychological support areas during bear markets.

The current price of Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of Bitcoin of 19,980 USD. For bull market confirmation, the market price of Bitcoin should be above realized price. 

MVRV, Z-SCORE

The MVRV, Z-score has historically been very effective in identifying periods where market value is moving unusually high above realized value. These periods are highlighted by the z-score (red line) entering the pink box and indicating the top of market cycles. It has been able to pick the market high of each cycle within two weeks.

It also shows when market value is far below realized value, highlighted by z-score entering the green box. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has historically produced outsized returns.

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Industrial Average corrected by 1.82% in the last week. The next resistance is expected at 37,000 and immediate support is expected at 33,000 levels.

Gold

Gold Futures formed Inverted head and shoulder pattern, trend reversal is expected. The next resistance is expected at $1,820 and immediate support is expected at $1780

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading at the support and volume is drying which is an indication of a big move. The next resistance is expected at $21,500 and support at $15,500

ETHEREUM

ETH/BTC is showing a volatility contraction pattern which is an indication of a big move. The next resistance is expected at 0.080 and next support is expected at 0.065.

Highlights of the week:

Goldman Sachs used a private blockchain to arrange a 100 million euro two-year digital bond for the European Investment Bank that was settled in 60 seconds instead of the usual five days. 

 

 

 

 

Despite crypto winter, first-time and returning buyers per day in Polygon’s NFT market reached new all-time highs during the last month of the year.

 

 

 

Apple plans to enable the installation of apps from external sources outside of its own App Store on iPhones and iPads because of European Union’s Digital Markets Act, which requires tech companies to fully comply with restrictions by 2024.

 

 

 

 

Get deeper insights into the crypto market’s weekly trends discussed on our Spotify podcast.

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Weekly Crypto Market Report – 11th Dec 2022

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market is in the fear zone. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has changed from “26” to “27”. 

SOPR

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In layman terms, it indicates if people have sold their BTC at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 0.96 which means the coins on average are being sold near their purchase price 

Is This The End of the Bear Market?

CVDD & Balanced Price

CVDD stands for Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed. When coins are sent between wallets, the transaction has:

  • a USD value 
  • plus, it also destroys a time value in terms of how long the original investor held their coins

That value is Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).

CVDD tracks the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as coins move from old hands into new hands as a ratio of the market age. It is then multiplied by 6 million, which is a somewhat arbitrary number as it is not linked to any relevant Bitcoin data.

BALANCED PRICE is an on-chain indicator used for Bitcoin price prediction at the bear market lows. This means that it is trying to identify the lowest price that Bitcoin may drop to in the future. It uses inputs that we have already explained in the sections above. It is calculated by subtracting Transferred Price from Realized Price.

Historically whenever Balanced price crossed down CVDD, bottom formation was seen. We are expecting Bitcoin to bottom as the same pattern has formed on the chart.

REALIZED PRICE

Realized price is defined as the average cost of acquisition based on every coin moved on-chain. In all the previous bear markets we see that the price trades below the realized price which indicates on average the coins held during this period have higher cost of acquisition than the current market price.   Realized prices act as psychological support areas during bear markets.

The current price of Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of Bitcoin of 20,043 USD. For bull market confirmation, the market price of Bitcoin should be above realized price. 

MVRV, Z-SCORE

The MVRV, Z-score has historically been very effective in identifying periods where market value is moving unusually high above realized value. These periods are highlighted by the z-score (red line) entering the pink box and indicating the top of market cycles. It has been able to pick the market high of each cycle within two weeks.

It also shows when market value is far below realized value, highlighted by z-score entering the green box. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has historically produced outsized returns.

Currently, the metric stands at 0.85 in the green box, which means that the market is undervalued and buying BTCin green box produced outsized returns in past 

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Industrial Average corrected by nearly 2% in the last week. The next resistance is expected at 37,000 and immediate support is expected at 33,150 levels.

Gold

Gold Futures formed Inverted head and shoulder pattern, trend reversal is expected. The next resistance is expected at $1,820 and immediate support is expected at $1718

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading at the support and RSI divergence can be seen which is a sign of  trend reversal. BTC is expected to bounce back, next resistance is expected at $21,500 and support at $15,500

ETHEREUM

ETH/BTC is consolidating within a triangle pattern. The next resistance is expected at 0.080 and next support is expected at 0.065.

Highlights of the week:

Users of Opera crypto Browser will be able to access a feature that lets them drag and drop media files into the browser, which writes a smart contract and uploads the file into a blockchain, turning the files into NFTs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crypto.com’s CRO token had gained value on Monday on the news that the exchange is teaming up with Coca-Cola to launch a series of NFTs celebrating the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. CRO token climbed as much as 10% after the press release.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Web3 developer platform Alchemy is rolling out a decentralized application store. The marketplace aims to streamline access to decentralized applications for users and developers.

 

 

 

 

 

Get deeper insights into the crypto market’s weekly trends discussed on our Spotify podcast.

Start your Crypto Investments with XMINT Bots today

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Weekly Crypto Market Report – 4th Dec’22

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market is in the fear zone. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has changed from “28” to “26”. 

SOPR

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In layman terms, it indicates if people have sold their BTC at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 0.97 which means the coins on average are being sold near their purchase price however as highlighted on the above chart there was capitulation seen on the 18th Nov 2022. Historically, Bitcoin bounced back twice after the capitulation.

Is This The End of the Bear Market?

CVDD

When coins are sent between wallets, the transaction has:

  • a USD value 
  • plus, it also destroys a time value in terms of how long the original investor held their coins

That value is Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).

CVDD tracks the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as coins move from old hands into new hands as a ratio of the market age. It is then multiplied by 6 million, which is a somewhat arbitrary number as it is not linked to any relevant Bitcoin data.

The result is that it has historically correctly forecasted the major lows of Bitcoin’s price with good accuracy. The Bitcoin price may have reached the bottom as per the above chart

REALIZED PRICE

Realized price is defined as the average cost of acquisition based on every coin moved on-chain. In all the previous bear markets we see that the price trades below the realized price which indicates on average the coins held during this period have higher cost of acquisition than the current market price.   Realized prices act as psychological support areas during bear markets.

The current price of Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of Bitcoin of 20, 241 USD. For bull market confirmation, the market price of Bitcoin should be above realized price. 

MVRV

MVRV ratio is equal to the market capital divided by realized capitalization of Bitcoin.
Realized capital, unlike market capitalization, does not use the current market price, but rather uses the prices of each Bitcoin when they last moved. 

MVRV accounts both realized cap and market cap into account making certain values critical in making an investment decision. 

  • Values over ‘3.7’: Possible Market Top
    If the values go above 3.7, it could be reasonable to sell the position off
  • Values under ‘1’: Possible Market Bottom
    If the values go under 1, it is time for taking a gradual long position.

Currently, the metric stands at 0.83 which means that the market is undervalued and buying BTC below 1 has produced outsized returns in past 

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average gained by nearly 0.3% in the last week. The daily trend for Dow Jones has formed a double bottom pattern and we can expect the momentum to continue. The next resistance is expected at 37,000 and immediate support is expected at 33,600 levels.

Gold

Gold Futures broke out of the descending trendline. The next resistance is expected at $1,820 and immediate support is expected at $1718

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading at the support and has formed a DOJI candle on weekly time frame which indicates trend reversal, moreover it also broke the descending trendline on RSI. BTC is expected to bounce back, next resistance is expected at $21,500

ETHEREUM

Ethereum is appearing strong against Bitcoin, it has broken the descending trendline. The next resistance is expected at 0.080 and next support is expected at 0.065.

Highlights of the week:

Payments firm Stripe has debuted a project to facilitate fiat-to-crypto payments for companies in dozens of countries around the world.

 

 

 

Telegram will build a decentralized exchange and non-custodial wallets that could reach millions of users.

 

 

 

 

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed could live with a more moderate interest rate hike at its mid-December meeting. Bitcoin had recently crossed $17,000, up by 1.4% over the past 24 hours on Wednesday, and its third consecutive day of gains.

 

 

Get deeper insights into the crypto market’s weekly trends discussed on our Spotify podcast.

Start your Crypto Investments with XMINT Bots today

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Weekly Crypto Market Report – 27th Nov’22

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market is in the fear zone. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has changed from “21” to “28”. 

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In layman terms, it indicates if people have sold their BTC at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 0.97 which means the coins on average are being sold near their purchase price. Generally, we see that the metric value of 1 acts as resistance during the bear market. For strong confirmation of trend reversal the metric  should stay and oscillate above 1. 

Is This The End of the Bear Market?

When coins are sent between wallets, the transaction has:

  • a USD value 
  • plus, it also destroys a time value in terms of how long the original investor held their coins

That value is Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).

CVDD tracks the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as coins move from old hands into new hands as a ratio of the market age. It is then multiplied by 6 million, which is a somewhat arbitrary number as it is not linked to any relevant Bitcoin data.

The result is that it has historically correctly forecasted the major lows of Bitcoin’s price with good accuracy. The Bitcoin price may have reached the bottom as per the above chart

Realized price is defined as the average cost of acquisition based on every coin moved on-chain. In all the previous bear markets we see that the price trades below the realized price which indicates on average the coins held during this period have higher cost of acquisition than the current market price.   Realized prices act as psychological support areas during bear markets.

The current price of Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of Bitcoin of 20, 241 USD. For bull market confirmation, the market price of Bitcoin should be above realized price. 

MVRV ratio is equal to the market capital divided by realized capitalization of Bitcoin.
Realized capital, unlike market capitalization, does not use the current market price, but rather uses the prices of each Bitcoin when they last moved. 

MVRV accounts both realized cap and market cap into account making certain values critical in making an investment decision. 

  • Values over ‘3.7’: Possible Market Top
    If the values go above 3.7, it could be reasonable to sell the position off
  • Values under ‘1’: Possible Market Bottom
    If the values go under 1, it is time for taking a gradual long position.

Currently, the metric stands at 0.8 which means that the market is undervalued and buying BTC below 1 has produced outsized returns in past 

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average gained by nearly 2% in the last week. The daily trend for Dow Jones has formed a double bottom pattern and we can expect the momentum to continue. The next resistance is expected at 34,300 and next support is expected at 28,700 levels.

Gold

Gold Futures remained totally flat during the past week. The weekly trend for Gold continues to traverse within a descending channel pattern. The next resistance is expected at $1,820

Bitcoin

Bitcoin jumped up marginally during the past week. The 4-hourly trend for BTC is moving within a descending triangle pattern. The next support for Bitcoin is expected at $14,700

ETHEREUM

Ethereum gained nearly 5%  against Bitcoin, in the week gone by. The weekly trend for ETH-BTC has is traveling within the triangle pattern. The next resistance is expected at 0.085 and next support is expected at 0.065.

 

Highlights of the week

 

Starting in the spring of 2023, the Bank of Japan will work with private banks and other organizations to identify any problems with deposits and withdrawals and check that a central bank digital currency (CBDC) can operate during natural disasters and in areas without internet access.

 

 

 

Sales for the Saudi Arabia-themed non-fungible token (NFT) collection called “The Saudis” increased 387% on Tuesday following the country’s surprise 2-1 win against Argentina, which is considered one of the best soccer teams in the world.

 

 

 

 

Seychelles-based exchange Bitget has started operations in Brazil and will allow users to make crypto purchases in Brazil.

 

 

 

Get deeper insights into the crypto market’s weekly trends discussed on our Spotify podcast.

 

Start your Crypto Investments with XMINT Bots today

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Weekly Crypto Market Report – 20th Nov’22

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market is in the fear zone. Compared to last week’s, the Fear & Greed Index has changed from “29” to “21”. 

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In layman terms, it indicates if people have sold their BTC at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 0.94 which means the coins on average are being sold near their purchase price. Generally, we see that the metric value of 1 acts as resistance during the bear market. For strong confirmation of trend reversal the metric  should stay and oscillate above 1. 

 Is This The Beginning of the Bull Market?

The number of active addresses is directly proportional to the number of active users. It is important to note that the number of active addresses doesn’t give the exact number of active users as a user might have more than one address. 

During a bull market, the number of active addresses increases tremendously and a sharp fall is experienced as prices begin to fall showing weaker hands leaving the market. Historically, we have seen the metric start oscillating within a range after the fall in the bear market and increase sharply as the market prepares to move out of the bear phase. The number of active addresses is still moving within a range (sideways movement) and doesn’t show the growth as seen during the start of the bull market. Thus, the metric doesn’t confirm start of the bull market.

Realized price is defined as the average cost of acquisition based on every coin moved on-chain. In all the previous bear markets we see that the price trades below the realized price which indicates on average the coins held during this period have higher cost of acquisition than the current market price.   Realized prices act as psychological support areas during bear markets.

After staying for more than 30 days below the realized price of 20, 312 USD , the price has just moved below it. For bull market confirmation, the market price should be above realized price. 

MVRV ratio is equal to the market capital divided by realized capitalization of Bitcoin.
Realized capital, unlike market capitalization, does not use the current market price, but rather uses the prices of each Bitcoin when they last moved. 

MVRV accounts both realized cap and market cap into account making certain values critical in making an investment decision. 

  • Values over ‘3.7’: Possible Market Top
    If the values go above 3.7, it could be reasonable to sell the position off
  • Values under ‘1’: Possible Market Bottom
    If the values go under 1, it is time for taking a gradual long position.

Currently, the metric stands at 0.8 which means that the market is undervalued and buying BTC below 1 has produced outsized returns in past 

 

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average remained almost unchanged compared to last week. The 4-hourly trend for Dow Jones has broken out of the channel pattern. The next resistance is expected at 34,300 and next support is expected at 28,700 levels.

Gold

Gold Futures dipped marginally during the past week. The weekly trend for Gold is traversing within a descending channel pattern. The next resistance is expected at $1,820

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remained neutral during the past week. The 2-hourly trend for BTC is moving within a descending triangle pattern. The next support for Bitcoin is expected at $14,700

ETHEREUM

Ethereum dropped over 6% against Bitcoin, in the week gone by. The weekly trend for ETH-BTC is traveling within the triangle pattern. The next resistance is expected at 0.085 and next support is expected at 0.065.

 

Highlights of the week:

Crypto funds saw their largest inflows in 14 weeks, with net inflows of $42 million in the seven days. Despite the market downturn, the inflows could indicate that investors see this price weakness as an opportunity.

 

 

 

 

Merchants who accept payments in Circle’s USDC stablecoin can now interact with Apple Pay. NFT marketplaces, crypto gaming, crypto exchanges, crypto wallets and cross-border remittance providers can help their business grow by making checkout easy with Apple Pay and Circle.

 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin-holder El Salvador President Nayib Bukele and Justin Sun, the founder of the Tron cryptocurrency network and Grenada’s ambassador, have decided to accumulate bitcoin at a pace of 1 BTC per day.

 

 

 

 

 

Our Pick of the week:

 

Get deeper insights into the crypto market’s weekly trends discussed on our Spotify podcast.

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