Weekly Crypto Market Report – 22 Jan 2023

 

What is the general sentiment for Crypto?

The sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market turns NEUTRAL. Compared to last week, the Fear & Greed Index has changed from “45” to “50”. 

SOPR

Another data to evaluate the sentiment of the general public would be to look at Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). What is SOPR? In layman terms, it indicates if people have sold their BTC at a profit or if they sold at a loss. An SOPR value above 1 indicates that profit booking dominated loss booking and below 1 indicates that loss booking dominated profit booking. A value of 1 indicates that the coins were sold at their purchase price. Adjusted SOPR filters out transactions that are younger than 1 hour, thus, clearing out noise from the metric.

aSOPR for this week stands at 1 which means the coins were sold at their purchase price

 

Is This The End of the Bear Market?

 

CVDD-TERMINAL PRICE CHART INDICATOR

TERMINAL PRICE – This is an on-chain indicator. That means it uses data from the Bitcoin blockchain to identify actual user behavior and activity.Before Terminal price is calculated, it is first necessary to calculate Transferred Price. Transferred price takes the sum of Coin Days Destroyed and divides it by the existing supply of bitcoin and the time it has been in circulation. The value of Transferred Price is then multiplied by 21.This Terminal Price has historically been very effective at forecasting the tops of Bitcoin price cycles. Currently the TERMINAL PRICE stands at $112,535

CVDD –  tracks the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as coins move from old hands into new hands as a ratio of the market age. It is then multiplied by 6 million, which is a somewhat arbitrary number as it is not linked to any relevant Bitcoin data. The result is that it has historically correctly forecasted the major lows of Bitcoins price with good accuracy. 

 

Currently the Bitcoin CVDD stands at $17,210 which acts as the long term support levels, Bitcoin Price bounced back from here as expected

 

RESERVE RISK

Reserve Risk is a bitcoin chart that allows us to visualize the confidence amongst long term bitcoin holders relative to the price of Bitcoin at a given moment in time. 

When confidence is high and price is low then there is an attractive risk/reward to invest in Bitcoin at that time (green zone). When confidence is low and price is high then risk/reward is unattractive (red zone). Investing in Bitcoin during periods where Reserve Risk is in the green zone has produced outsized returns over time.

 

Historically bottom formation was seen when reserve risk entered the green zone.

 

Overall Market Performance

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Industrial Average corrected by 2.74% in the last week. The next resistance is expected at 35,400 and immediate support is expected at 32,650 levels.

 

Gold

Gold Futures broke out of Inverted head and shoulder pattern, upside movement is expected. The next resistance is expected at $2,000 and immediate support is expected at $1,880

 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has broken out of the downtrend, upside movement is expected. The next resistance is expected at $30,000 and support at $18,600

 

ETHEREUM

ETH has reached the 1 year downtrend resistance. An immediate support is expected at $1150 and the next resistance is expected at $1680 levels.

 

Pick of the Week – $THETA

 

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